Some Pessimistic Remarks on Germany v England

Before we get to the main event, "Sunday's Classic Heavyweight Bout of Two Teams that Feed on Reputation More than Anything Else," here are some thoughts on the other knock-out matches:

Argentina v Mexico
A rematch of a great battle in 2006 (Maxi Rodríguez, anyone?). Argentina have probably looked better than any other team over the course of the three group games (I know, let's wait for Brazil v Portugal). Messi has been spectacular at times, and together with Tevez and Higuaín their strike force is nothing short of terrifying. However, they haven't faced much adversity yet and I'm not sure if they're built for it, either. One big question is if Mascherano and Verón can get the job done (particularly without Cambiasso) when it really counts. Yet, I don't think Mexico have what it takes to really challenge La Albiceleste. While Mexico have looked surprisingly good at times (e.g. against France - but just how meaningful is a victory against them really?) the gap in individual quality between the two times will eventually be impossible to overcome for El Tri (using these nicknames incessantly is sooo much fun!).

U.S.A. v Ghana
Another rematch, which will give the U.S. the chance to avenge their defeat in the 2006 group stage. This one seems like a very open-ended match to me. Both teams are extremely physical and while it won't be pretty on the eyes we can expect very intense football. I think the U.S. will prevail (possibly in extra time?) because Ghana's ultimately too harmless in their attack to take advantage of the American weak spots in the back. The U.S., on the other hand, have proven that they're an extremely gritty team and that they can grind out results.

Uruguay v South Korea
Sound like a real treat, huh? Korea's only in it because of Nigeria's incompetence. Having said that, they sure can fight and run. Uruguay, on the other hand, have been very solid so far and are clear favorites (although I feel they're slightly overhyped). I guess I'm going for the upset here: South Korea to go through after penalties.

It should be pointed out that one of the last four teams (U.S.A., Ghana, Uruguay, and South Korea) will definitely be in the semifinals. That's a major upset right there (thanks to France, and, to a lesser extent, England)! Now, the Germans are certainly the last team that should be allowed to complain about difficult draws (cf. World Cup 2002, EURO 2008, to name just a few) but given their potential path to this year's title (England, Argentina, Spain, Brazil) they will certainly bemoan the fact that Ghana didn't score a last minute equalizer today. I know this is a bold claim of highly questionable moral character but I think that Löw would have made an ingenious move by somehow getting Ghana to score in stoppage time.

Which brings us right to today's game. I thought Germany were incredibly nervous, which manifested itself primarily in a sloppy passing game. Despite his beautiful and immensely important goal, Özil's overall performance was rather poor. Müller, too, was having a bad day. Podolski seems to become more and more selfish. I thought that Schweinsteiger was outstanding in winning the ball back and delivering crucial tackles. They were crucial all the more because Mertesacker, who's supposed to be the anchor of the German defense, is slowly becoming a true liability. His partner, Arne Friedrich, was unusually brilliant, however. Cacau and Jérôme Boateng didn't exactly prove that they're much better than Klose and Badstuber, respectively.

Yet, there's of course a bright side to all this: Germany won despite having many of its players not performing to the best of their abilities. They also proved that they can squeeze out a win when they have to. They controlled most of the game (even though Ghana uncovered Germany's defensive weak spots on numerous occasions). The one thing that's really absent in the German team is experience, though. They don't miss Ballack as a player (Khedira's doing just fine) but as a leader (Schweinsteiger, despite his new brilliance, doesn't have Ballack's presence on the field yet). This may sound cliché but with him I don't see them losing to Serbia or struggling as much against Ghana. And that's also why I don't think that Germany can beat England on Sunday...

In Germany, the football establishment seems strangely content with accepting the role of the favorite against England. This is probably caused more by England's poor performances than by anything else but it's also incredibly myopic. In England, on the other hand, many people seem to coquet with the role of the underdog, or, alternatively, to relish the idea of meeting the "old enemy."

The one thing that doesn't nearly get attention enough is the fact that England's "golden generation," if you wanna call it that, has only this one chance left to win the big prize. In Terry, Cole, Lampard, Gerrard, and Rooney England has five near world class players to Germany's two (Lahm and Schweinsteiger). Overall, England is much more experienced and accustomed to football played at the highest level than their German counterparts. For example, Manuel Neuer is already a much better goalie than David James ever was but he hasn't even gained ten caps yet. This sort of sums up the difference between the two sides: Germany has much more potential but they fall short on the one valuable skill that can only be gained through time: experience.

As much as I would like to see it happen the other way round (or to be proven wrong): I fear that Germany will not reach the quarterfinals for the first time since ca. 1763. (If only Ghana had scored in stoppage time...)