Germany v Spain

Having predicted Germany's comfortable victory over Argentina makes me the human equivalent of Paul, the Prognoctopus, I guess. It was, frankly, a stunning performance by a German team that is already (prematurely?) compared to the great 1972 West German team, until now the gold standard for beautiful football from the Nationalmannschaft. Scoring four goals in each of the first two knock-out games at a World Cup (against quality opposition [yes, England, too], mind you) is simply an incredible achievement.

For an appropriate appraisal of how far the German team has come, it is also crucial to remember how many first-choice players Löw didn't have at his disposal in South Africa: Adler, Ballack, Rolfes, and Westermann would all most likely have made the starting team if it wasn't for injuries. Before the tournament there was no well-attuned team whatsoever, which makes the crisp passing and mutual understanding on the pitch all the more remarkable.

Still, one should not forget that Germany also had a good amount of luck in that both games were really going their way (e.g., early goals due to terrible defending/goalkeeping) which allowed them to sit back and execute their deadly counterattacks. It still remains to be seen how good they really are when they encounter problems (like in the Serbia game), fall behind or have to defend against a tactically aware and functioning team like Spain.

Also, Germany can now no longer play the "we're-the-young-underdogs-card." Many observers, both within and outside of Germany, have already declared them favorites to win the whole thing. And indeed, it would be foolish for Germany to rest on their laurels now as the team is in fact good enough to win the cup and this should therefore also be their clear objective. Given that both Spain and Holland have been solid but not spectacular so far obviously also plays into the narrative of Germany as favorites.

But still, is Germany really good enough to beat Spain, a team that taught them a painful lesson in modern football just two years ago in the final of the European championship? Can they play any better than they did against Argentina? (I think they'll have to as they were content with letting Argentina dominate the game for 40 minute or so.) And, most importantly, is Spain going to play better football than they did against pesky Paraguay? 

Well, first of all, the 2008 team was much older and slower (Lehmann, Metzelder, Hitzlsperger, Ballack, Frings) than the current one. With the possible exception of Ballack I don't think that Germany misses any of these players. I know that I have always made the point that experience is an invaluable asset at the World Cup and I still think that's true in principle. Germany would be stronger (at least on paper) with Ballack on the pitch instead of Sami Khedira. Yet, in terms of locker room chemistry his injury may indeed have been a blessing in disguise for the German team as it allowed Schweinsteiger, Lahm, and Klose to share the responsibilities in leading the team without having to resort to the outdated model of the Ballackian alpha male. 

With regard to the question if they can deliver another performance for the ages I'm slightly skeptical, however. I'm not sure if there's any peaking left for this team (and I'd love to be proven wrong once again). I simply can't see Spain making the same kind of mistakes and defending as poorly as England and Argentina. Also, Müller's absence will be hard to overcome, especially given Löw's inexplicable fondness for Trochowski.

Well, how about Spain's performance so far, you ask? The current team isn't yet playing the perfect short passing Tiki-Taka of 2008 (unless you're love-blind Sid Lowe, that is). Fernando Torres is only a shadow of his former self (see clip above) but Villa's brilliance has so far been able to make up for this. Del Bosque is still refusing to make Fabregas a part of the starting XI although the team is clearly playing better with him than without him. Yet, Spain hasn't really been playing poorly either, which goes to show just how high the bar has been set for them. They are still the best team in the world! Their individual quality on all positions is breathtaking, their potential seemingly unlimited. Once they click --and I believe they will click in at least one of their next two games-- it's all over.

Prediction: Spain after penalties. I picked Spain to win the World Cup and I stand by this prediction.

Come on, Germany! Prove me wrong, please!