The Final

A lot of people seem to think that yesterday's final was marred by the fourteen yellow cards Howard Webb handed out in his awkward attempt to control the match. Moreover, the Dutch are generally accused for having played cynical anti-football against a Spanish team, which many commentators seem to consider some higher life form. Finals are seldom beautiful to watch because the stakes are simply to high and this one was no different.

But still, I enjoyed the final quite a bit. Bert van Marwijk's tactical plan was brilliant as he avoided the overly cautious German approach and clearly told his players to do everything they can to stop Spain from setting up their hypnotic passing game. Sure, Holland was extremely lucky to not have both their two midfield destroyers sent off but I can't help but admire their ruthlessness. They did what they had to do (and got away with it). Frankly, I find it very irritating that people seem to expect other teams to play into Spain's hands as if the Iberian brilliance had some natural right to proceed unhindered.

Also, it seems very disingenuous to only focus on those Webbian mistakes that favored the Dutch. After all, Iniesta's winning goal was the direct result of a goal kick that should have been a corner for Holland and Puyol was lucky that Robben decided to stay on his feet for once (while Shrek was bear-hugging him). Clearly, in doing so he tried to make up for just having badly missed the best chance of the match some minutes before (Casillas's save was, of course, brilliant in its own right).

Now, how about Spain? They have been the best team over the last three years or so and they deserve to call themselves champions of the world. Overall, they have probably also been the best team at the World Cup (although the games against Switzerland and Paraguay left much to be desired). I know, of course, that football is about more than scoring goals, but still: eight goals in seven games, really?

One has to admire their patience and confidence to score eventually, though. I was particularly impressed how they managed to shift into a higher gear after 70 minutes or so of last night's final. Needless to say, their defense and midfield (and Villa) are sheer class and remain unrivaled in today's international football. Also, del Bosque's gutsy decision to bench Torres may have given Spain the edge over van Marwijk's team (who inexplicably kept van Persie on the pitch throughout the tournament).

I guess I'm simply looking for something else in football than what Spain has to offer. Sure, I can find some pleasure in ball movement but I also prefer the vertical pass over the lateral. If a team is as good as Spain undoubtedly is other standards apply. Given that it is essentially Barcelona that just won the World Cup (which is, ironically, as close as one can probably come the ideal of Dutch football) I wondered why Barça is so much more fun to watch than Spain. The only answer(s) I could come up with were: Messi and Ronaldinho. It's that magical touch of these special players that Spain lacks and that prevents the best national side in the world from being truly spectacular. Barça and Spain have the same brain but only the Catalonians have an equally beautiful body to match their cerebral prowess.

Somebody Please Get Paul the Octopus to the Next Sushi Bar...

Spain had their best match in the tournament so far, while Germany probably had their worst. Obviously, the two performances are interrelated to some extent but overall this was a richly deserved Spanish victory against a surprisingly nervous German team (lack of experience, anyone?). I remember saying something about the World Cup being all about peaking at the right time and tonight's game is obviously a prime example for the validity of this theory. For the first time, Spain really got their Tiki-Taka going and starved Germany of the ball, suffocating them very much like a python does with easy prey. This is of course a much improved German team but at times tonight's game was reminiscent of that terrible 2008 final in Vienna.

I cannot help but feel, though, that Germany showed too much respect for their opponents. They were quite timid from the start, lacking positive body language as much as the usual accuracy in their passing game. It was almost like Müller's absence was felt by all the players, and given how instrumental the anarchical youngster had been throughout the campaign in South Africa (and how poor a replacement Trochowski would prove to be) they may have indeed been right about his irreplaceability. Or was this just another useful excuse for a team that felt it had already achieved something "great" by beating England and Argentina?

It is of course very easy to glorify Spain for their performance (something a lot of German fans and pundits will do now in order to make the defeat less painful; see England v Germany). Apart from that, a lot of football's arrogant commentariat consider Spain's dull passing game the highest form of football, belittling the joy that comes with scoring goals. Spain didn't create many great chances tonight but mainly semi-decent shots from just outside the box. Germany's defending was in fact outstanding (with the one exception of not marking Puyol after corners) and it would have been interesting to see if Spain would have ever gotten nervous toward the end of a game still tied (doubtful, sure, but Germany was looking slightly better in the second half with Jansen and Kroos on the pitch).

Finally, I was pleasantly surprised how fair both teams played. This surely helped Spain more than Germany and while it's true that Germany might not even have progressed as far as they did with Michael Ballack as their leader, it's also safe to assume that he would have given Spain a harder time in midfield (if only through cynical fouls). Well, Holland's next for Spain and van Bommel and de Jong are surely going to do everything within their power to throw some sticks into that well-oiled Iberian passing machine.

Germany v Spain

Having predicted Germany's comfortable victory over Argentina makes me the human equivalent of Paul, the Prognoctopus, I guess. It was, frankly, a stunning performance by a German team that is already (prematurely?) compared to the great 1972 West German team, until now the gold standard for beautiful football from the Nationalmannschaft. Scoring four goals in each of the first two knock-out games at a World Cup (against quality opposition [yes, England, too], mind you) is simply an incredible achievement.

For an appropriate appraisal of how far the German team has come, it is also crucial to remember how many first-choice players Löw didn't have at his disposal in South Africa: Adler, Ballack, Rolfes, and Westermann would all most likely have made the starting team if it wasn't for injuries. Before the tournament there was no well-attuned team whatsoever, which makes the crisp passing and mutual understanding on the pitch all the more remarkable.

Still, one should not forget that Germany also had a good amount of luck in that both games were really going their way (e.g., early goals due to terrible defending/goalkeeping) which allowed them to sit back and execute their deadly counterattacks. It still remains to be seen how good they really are when they encounter problems (like in the Serbia game), fall behind or have to defend against a tactically aware and functioning team like Spain.

Also, Germany can now no longer play the "we're-the-young-underdogs-card." Many observers, both within and outside of Germany, have already declared them favorites to win the whole thing. And indeed, it would be foolish for Germany to rest on their laurels now as the team is in fact good enough to win the cup and this should therefore also be their clear objective. Given that both Spain and Holland have been solid but not spectacular so far obviously also plays into the narrative of Germany as favorites.

But still, is Germany really good enough to beat Spain, a team that taught them a painful lesson in modern football just two years ago in the final of the European championship? Can they play any better than they did against Argentina? (I think they'll have to as they were content with letting Argentina dominate the game for 40 minute or so.) And, most importantly, is Spain going to play better football than they did against pesky Paraguay? 

Well, first of all, the 2008 team was much older and slower (Lehmann, Metzelder, Hitzlsperger, Ballack, Frings) than the current one. With the possible exception of Ballack I don't think that Germany misses any of these players. I know that I have always made the point that experience is an invaluable asset at the World Cup and I still think that's true in principle. Germany would be stronger (at least on paper) with Ballack on the pitch instead of Sami Khedira. Yet, in terms of locker room chemistry his injury may indeed have been a blessing in disguise for the German team as it allowed Schweinsteiger, Lahm, and Klose to share the responsibilities in leading the team without having to resort to the outdated model of the Ballackian alpha male. 

With regard to the question if they can deliver another performance for the ages I'm slightly skeptical, however. I'm not sure if there's any peaking left for this team (and I'd love to be proven wrong once again). I simply can't see Spain making the same kind of mistakes and defending as poorly as England and Argentina. Also, Müller's absence will be hard to overcome, especially given Löw's inexplicable fondness for Trochowski.

Well, how about Spain's performance so far, you ask? The current team isn't yet playing the perfect short passing Tiki-Taka of 2008 (unless you're love-blind Sid Lowe, that is). Fernando Torres is only a shadow of his former self (see clip above) but Villa's brilliance has so far been able to make up for this. Del Bosque is still refusing to make Fabregas a part of the starting XI although the team is clearly playing better with him than without him. Yet, Spain hasn't really been playing poorly either, which goes to show just how high the bar has been set for them. They are still the best team in the world! Their individual quality on all positions is breathtaking, their potential seemingly unlimited. Once they click --and I believe they will click in at least one of their next two games-- it's all over.

Prediction: Spain after penalties. I picked Spain to win the World Cup and I stand by this prediction.

Come on, Germany! Prove me wrong, please!

Germany v Argentina

Well, I was right about the Dutch pulling an upset. It was, however, a very cynical match that saw two incredibly talented teams resort to the dark arts of foul play and dramatic acting. The Dutch scored two cheap goals to rally from behind, to which the Brazilians reacted like spoiled children who had their favorite toy taken away from them. While the Dunga era will certainly come to a quick end in order to make way for "Project National Glory 2014," the question remains how far this Dutch team can go in this year's competition. They will be clear favorites against either Ghana or Uruguay and I think that they will indeed seize the moment to reach the third World Cup final in their history. Still, we have no idea how good they really are other that their already poor defense has been further weakened through Mathijsen's injury and that they're loaded upfront even with van der Vaart on the bench.

Germany v Argentina


This rematch of a 2006 quarterfinal may be unique in that both teams are seeking revenge. The Argentines because they feel that they should have never lost to a clearly inferior German team, and the Germans because they blame the Albiceleste for losing one of their most important players, Torsten Frings, for the semifinal against Italy (legend has it that Germany would haver never ever lost that game had Frings been allowed to harass Pirlo in Dortmund).



The convincing win against England instilled a ton of confidence into the German team. They clearly believe that they can beat Argentina again (this was particularly obvious in Schweinsteiger and Lahm's overstated trash talking). Argentina, on the other hand, are --naturally, one might say--- absolutely convinced that they are the better team.

Indeed, the speed of the German passing game may cause great difficulties for Argentina, particularly with the unreliable Demichelis in the back (and the lack of a second world class defensive midfielder). Yet, pretty much the same can of course be said with regard to the German central defense (although Mertesacker looked slightly more assured against England) and the enormous firepower of Messi, Higuain, and Tevez.

I terms of overall experience and individual class Argentina clearly has the advantage. On the other hand, Germany may benefit from the meticulous match preparation coach and devoted nose picker Jogi Löw (and chief scout Urs Siegenthaler) have rightly become known for. This is not to say that Maradona's approach of coaching by the sheer force of personality is necessarily at a disadvantage, though. After all, at tournaments like the World Cup motivational skills are crucial (cf. Beckenbauer, Franz [1990]; Klinsmann, Jürgen [2006]).

Prediction: Germany to win rather comfortably.

Spain v Paraguay
Prediction: Spain to win in dominating fashion. Torres to score (at least) a brace.